The rise of chat bots and the fall of apps

It once was cool to build a mobile app and many startups in the past had built successful businesses with them and a minimalist web site. Now the chances of a new mobile app, creating mindshare and enabling a spot on a person’s home screen is next to impossible. We’ve reached peak app and new style of apps called chat bots are taking mindshare.

App stores are flooded, the majority of apps are rarely downloaded or found for that matter, as they do not rank.

It’s now harder than ever for a developer to build an app, that will replace the staple set of apps, a user does have on their devices. The frontier has changed to chat apps that have a conversational style interface either using text or voice (think siri). If you are building a new mobile app, stop! and reconsider how you are going to reach your target audience.

These new chat apps are leveraging existing instant messaging apps and agents on websites. Increasingly also APIs are being created and exposed to allow developers to interact with well known personal assistants like Siri. Some may argue that the interaction between human and computer is frustrating. I’d agree, having occasional back and forth sessions with Siri, to dial on my iPhone, a person I call regularly. However the situation is slowing improving as machine learning/AI technology improves behind the scenes.

Many will argue that we are not seeing anything new, that it is just the same technology and approaches that have been around for ages. The quest, as such to pass the Turing test where a judge can not determine if he or she, is talking to a machine or a person.

I think we’ve reached an inflection point, where a new class of conversation chat bot is being enabled by the gradual and constant exponential evolution of computing technology, sharing of open source component technology (such as natural language processing) in conjunction with the ongoing to quest to provide individually tailored answers to people’s own question through understanding the explosion of data available online.

This is also backed up by a dramatic increase in tech news coverage regarding startups in the US and with training/conferences covering this area.

So forget building a mobile app and start building a chat bot!

 

 

Switching off from Aussie innovation for the time being …

The slow dawn of reality has crept into my thinking, that what I’m presently witnessing, is the rise of politically correct innovation within Australia. That is, that there is a rush on, to be positioned, to secure funding and “innovation wash” existing service offerings, ready for when government programs come into affect.

My high hopes for an ideas boom have been dashed somewhat of late. Not so much from the intent, but from the reality, that the intent does not match reality. There is significant education (dare I say re-education) required.

Let me show you what I mean.

If we look at the innovation website Business.gov.au. (their definition here ), it basically suggests, that innovation is about change. It follows:

What is innovation?

Innovation generally refers to changing or creating more effective processes, products and ideas, and can increase the likelihood of a business succeeding. Businesses that innovate create more efficient work processes and have better productivity and performance.

Now if we look at the wikipedia innovation article  it suggests, The term “innovation” can be defined as something original and more effective and, as a consequence, new, that “breaks into” the market or society.

Innovation is a new idea, or more-effective device or process.[1] Innovation can be viewed as the application of better solutions that meet new requirements, unarticulated needs, or existing market needs.[2] This is accomplished through more-effective products, processes, services, technologies, or business models that are readily available to markets, governments and society.

So from my perspective the first one, is inwards looking, about the term innovation (as in thats an innovative idea) to do business change or continuous improvement.

I’ve often argued that changing a business process to make it more effective is not innovation. However if that idea, is bought to market, as a new product or services offering, then it is innovation ie there has to be diffusion into a market or society.

Now if we look at the slick new marketing or education material (your viewpoints may differ on this) being produced by National Innovation & Science Agenda Australian Government it refers to how Australians have been good at Ideas, but now we need to get better at commercialising –  turning those ideas, into new products or services.

As you can see, there is a long road ahead, with a lot of jargon presently such as “Ideas Boom”. It will take some time for people, to agree on what things mean (even though they have great definitions available now) and to reach consensus. Then decisions will need to be made about how much capital is to be made available and under what investment thesis it will be allocated.

There are a lot of people shouting about a number of things surrounding these topics and if your not shouting the politically correct message too then no matter how novel and disruptive your idea or invention is, it may not benefit from the “Ideas Boom”. If this is effecting you, jump on a plane and go to Silicon Valley or elsewhere that may be appropriate.

I keep hearing about the lack of opportunity here in Australia, in many fields on podcasts I listen to occasionally. On those podcasts, when people ask eminent panel members about their thoughts on the subject, invariably, their answer will be that we do hope you stay and help drive the next generation. It always surprises me, assuming that these persons are in tenured positioned, how devoid their responses seem to be, from the reality of needing money (or some may say capital) and support to do so. Its this later bit, that’ll take so long to grow here in Australia. It may also require a generational change. The notion of not taking risks in some is the antithesis of what is required in an “ideas boom” era.

So I’m thinking of slowly fading away from observing and commenting on all of this, until I need something concrete from it. Presently it all seems to be a nice discussion, but discussion is after all discussion and not tangible outcomes.